Headlines
What this means for the new sales process
- Get every qualified call to a written proposal, quickly.Where Capsule shows a proposal (sent, or implied by reaching Negotiating or Closing), 47 to 64% of deals were won. Without one, 6% were won. 144 lost deals died at Proposing, after the call but before a proposal. Won deals signed a median 22 days after the proposal; lost ones dragged on for 80 days.
- Treat 90 days as a decision gate.82% of wins close within 90 days of the opportunity opening. Deals still undecided after 90 days won only 11% of the time (27 of 236). At day 90, ask the prospect for a decision or close the deal.
- Keep the cadence at two or more touches a week while a deal is live.Deals averaging 8 or more touchpoints per 30 days won 53% of the time; below 4 per 30 days the rate was 8 to 12%. Deals with 11 or more touchpoints in their first 30 days won 40%, against 6 to 16% for 2 to 10. When the longest silence was 14 days or less, 35% won; over 4 months, 14%.
- Bring a second person at the client into the conversation.Deals with one contact won 16% of the time; with two, 48%; with three or more, 62%. Part of this is effect rather than cause (finance and legal people join once a deal is happening), but a second stakeholder early is a cheap test of seriousness.
- On Hold is where deals die, so give it an expiry date and a reason.155 lost deals sat in On Hold before going Cold, against only 4 that came back and won. 167 deals are on hold now and none has a recorded reason. Keep holds to 60 to 90 days, then move them to a nurture list and stop counting them as pipeline.
- Invest in referrals and screen search leads harder.Referrals won 42% of decided deals, outbound 28% and inbound search 16%. Search leads produce most “Time waster” losses (88 of 123). Prospects already known to Unloq before the opportunity (first contact over 6 months earlier) win 47% of the time, against 22% for new ones. Qualify on fees and seriousness in the first call, and given the Nalka and success-fee-only competitor losses, test a fee structure weighted towards success fees.
Volume and win rate over time
By year the opportunity was opened. 2022 is Nov to Dec only, and 2026 runs to 29 Oct.
| Year opened | Opps | Opened by 29 Oct | Won | Win rate (decided) | Won within 90 days* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 217 | 179 | 43 | 23% | 16% |
| 2024 | 249 | 216 | 48 | 23% | 18% |
| 2025 | 184 | 153 | 33 | 31% | 17% |
| 2026 | 149 | 149 | 20 | 38% | 14% |
*Share of opportunities opened Jan to Jul each year that were won within 90 days. This is a like-for-like measure, because 2026 deals have had less time to close. On this measure 2026 is slightly below earlier years, at 14% against 16 to 18%. The higher 2026 “decided” win rate is flattering: 96 of its 149 opportunities are still open or on hold.
Wins by the year they closed: 43 in 2023, 42 in 2024, 38 in 2025 and 27 so far in 2026. Counting only the Signed Up and Won stages, and leaving out Complete / SOLD, the figures are 20, 21, 14 and 11.
Timing and cycle length
Medians, with the middle half of deals (25th to 75th percentile) in brackets. Dates use every contact at the business.
| Measure | Won | Lost | On hold |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opp opened → outcome (days) | 26 (7 to 76) | 85 (33 to 245) | 105 (27 to 258) to parking |
| First meeting → outcome (days) | 62 (20 to 307) | 112 (34 to 370) | |
| First contact → first meeting (days) | 5 (1 to 78) | 2 (0 to 13) | |
| Proposal email → outcome (days) | 22 (8 to 36), n=44 | 80 (36 to 172), n=50 | |
| Longest silence during deal (days) | 14 (6 to 42) | 26 (10 to 75) |
Win rate on decided deals by when the first meeting happened (right). Speed to the first meeting matters less than whether there is a meeting at all, and whether the relationship already existed. Most opportunities are opened in Capsule on the day of the first call, so “contact to meeting” is often 0 to 2 days. The strongest timing signal comes after the meeting: wins close fast and losses drag on.
Activity: emails, meetings, proposals
Counted across every contact at the business, from 90 days before the opportunity opened (or first contact, if later) to its outcome date (or today). Emails are those logged in Capsule.
| Median per deal | Won | Lost |
|---|---|---|
| Emails logged | 22 | 7 |
| Emails sent by Unloq | 13 | 5 |
| Meetings / calls | 2 (IQR 1 to 2.5) | 1 (IQR 1 to 2) |
| Days with a touch | 8 | 4 |
| Contacts involved | 2 | 1 |
Win rate on decided deals, by number of meetings (middle) and proposal evidence (right). The jump from one meeting (17%) to two (39%) is the clearest meeting signal. Zero-meeting deals win more than expected (27%) because half of those wins are repeat clients and partners (Complete / SOLD) who did not need a pitch meeting.
Win rate on decided deals, by number of emails logged: 1 to 5 emails 6%, 6 to 15 emails 16%, 16 to 40 emails 48%, 41 or more 70%. Some of this is cause and some is effect, because a live deal generates email (onboarding, contracts). The low-volume band (1 to 5 emails, 226 deals) is where most losses sit: deals that got one or two follow-ups and then stopped.
The “Unloq … Services” PDF pack went to 623 opportunities (it is counted if it went to anyone at the business in the deal window). Those won 22% of the time, against 40% for the rest. Sending the pack is not the same as a tailored proposal, and it often goes out early, in place of a second conversation.
Touchpoints and outcomes
A touchpoint is any logged interaction with anyone at the prospect: an email in or out, a meeting or call, a note, or a completed task. Counted from first contact (but no earlier than 90 days before the opportunity opened) to the outcome date, or to today for open deals. Calendar meetings count where no Capsule meeting was logged that day.
| Median per deal | Won | Lost | On hold | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Touchpoints | 26 (14 to 45) | 11 (6 to 18) | 12 (7 to 19) | 15 (11 to 30) |
| Touchpoints per 30 days | 11.8 (5.3 to 21.5) | 3.0 (1.2 to 7.0) | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Touchpoints in first 30 days | 16 (10 to 28) | 8 (5 to 13) | 9 | 11 |
| of which emails | 22 | 7 | 10 | 12 |
| of which meetings and calls | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| of which notes | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Contacts involved | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Win rate on decided deals by total touchpoints (right). The 0 to 2 band is mostly repeat clients and partners signed with almost nothing logged, plus quick losses; leaving out Complete / SOLD repeat business, it falls to 15%.
Win rate by touchpoint intensity over the life of the deal (left) and by touchpoints in the first 30 days after the opportunity opened (right).
Two cautions. First, this is partly reverse causation: a prospect who is keen replies, books calls and brings colleagues in, so a live deal creates touchpoints. The early-window and undecided-at-day-30 cuts reduce this but cannot remove it. Second, Capsule holds only about half of the real email traffic (143 of 275 emails in a 10-deal Gmail check, and almost none on some deals), so absolute counts are understated and the thresholds above are in Capsule-logged touchpoints, not real ones. The relative pattern is the useful part.
Where deals stall and why they are lost
| Last open stage before closing | Lost | Won |
|---|---|---|
| Enquiry (no call yet) | 73 | 4 |
| Proposing (call held, no proposal) | 144 | 16 |
| Negotiating (proposal sent) | 31 | 14 |
| Closing | 26 | 114 |
| On Hold | 155 | 4 |
Two leaks stand out. The first is between the first call and a proposal (Proposing): 144 deals were lost there. The second is On Hold, where 155 deals were lost and almost none were recovered. Once a proposal is out and the deal reaches Closing, Unloq wins about four in five. “Chose competitor” is rare in the data (16), but the 2026 Certego and AirTeam losses are not recorded that way (see caveats). Losses by year: in 2026 so far, fees and time waster account for 10 each out of 33. Each lost deal’s reason is shown in the full table below.
Seasonality, deal size, owners and lead source
Wins by month closed (all years). Signings cluster in January, March and April and dip in September, November and December. Opportunities opened in February to May convert best (31 to 34% of decided deals), and those opened in September worst (19%). Year-end and the post-summer restart are weak months to start a deal.
| Value band (£ per month) | Opps | Win rate (decided) | Median days to win | Median days to loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None or £0 (mostly partnerships and deal flow) | 121 | 40% | 17 | 190 |
| £1,000 to £1,499 | 286 | 20% | 25 | 72 |
| £1,500 to £2,499 | 400 | 27% | 30 | 84 |
| £2,500 and over | 17 | 40% (n=5 decided) | 114 (n=2) | 278 (n=3) |
Deal size barely affects how long a deal takes, because nearly everything is a £1,000 to £2,000 monthly retainer. Won and lost deals have the same median value, £1,250 a month. The list price has risen: most open deals are at £2,000.
| Owner | Opps | Won | Lost | Win rate (decided) | Since 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Braithwaite | 242 | 60 | 145 | 29% | 43% |
| Ollie Vickery | 97 | 28 | 42 | 40% | 47% |
| Bradley Neal | 150 | 29 | 75 | 28% | 48% |
| Ross Mason | 169 | 26 | 73 | 26% | 29% |
| Tobi Adewumi | 84 | 6 | 59 | 9% | 23% |
| Ryan Woolmington | 48 | 1 | 19 | 5% | 5% |
| Thalia Nicholls | 24 | 1 | 7 | 12% | 17% |
Owner is the Capsule opportunity owner, which may be the person who logged the lead rather than the person who ran the sale. Justin Wise (11 opportunities, mostly Australian sleep-clinic and medical mandates in 2023 to 24) and Asha Wills (6, all in 2025) are left out of this comparison as requested. Their 17 deals are real client opportunities, so they stay in every other figure and in the full table. Disposal opportunities win only 10% of the time (5 of 49 decided), against 28% for acquisition.
| Lead source | Opps | Won | Lost | Win rate (decided) | Median value (£/mo) | Median days to win | Median days to decision | Median touchpoints (won deals) | Had a meeting | Win rate once proposal sent | On hold / open now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Referral | 186 | 58 | 80 | 42% | 1,500 | 31 | 58 | 19 (28) | 90% | 67% | 29 / 19 |
| Search (inbound) | 359 | 47 | 243 | 16% | 1,250 | 28 | 55 | 12 (31) | 81% | 49% | 53 / 16 |
| Outbound | 252 | 36 | 94 | 28% | 2,000 | 20 | 89 | 12 (26) | 62% | 52% | 78 / 44 |
| Unknown | 34 | 12 | 12 | 50% | 1,500 | 20 | 39 | 6 (4) | 50% | 71% | 7 / 3 |
Referrals are the best source by a distance: 42% of decided deals won, 90% reach a meeting, and two in three that get a proposal sign. Inbound search brings the most volume but converts at 16%, and its losses are dominated by “Time waster” (88 of 243) and fees (49). Search improved in 2025 (31%, against 9 to 15% in 2023 to 24) and is at 17% in 2026. Outbound carries the highest prices (median £2,000 a month) and closes fastest when it wins (20 days), but fewer prospects reach a meeting (62%), more stall (78 on hold) and its losses are mostly fees (25), long-term hold (22) and DIY preference (16) rather than time wasters. Outbound is now the largest source: 66 of the 149 opportunities opened in 2026, of which only 8 are decided so far.
How lead source was mapped: Capsule has no source field on opportunities, so the source comes from the tags on the contact records, “Referral - Source”, “Search - Source” and “Outbound - Source” (Search means inbound enquiries from search). The tag is taken from the opportunity’s primary contact first (230 deals), then from the other contacts linked to the opportunity (464), then from other people at the same business (103). 34 deals are Unknown: 26 have no source tag anywhere and 8 have conflicting tags at the same level.
What changed in 2026
- Fewer new opportunities: 149 opened by 29 Oct, against 216 by the same date in 2024 and 153 in 2025.
- A shift to outbound: 66 of the 149 came from outbound, 44 from search and 28 from referrals. Referral volume is down from 63 in 2025, although referrals still win most often (8 of 14 decided).
- Faster disqualification: 2026 losses closed in a median 45 days, against 113 days in 2025. Wins still take about 20 days.
- Fewer deals reach a meeting: 70% of 2026 opportunities have a meeting found, against 81% in 2023 and 75% in 2025.
- The pipeline is ageing: 82 opportunities are open (Enquiry to Closing), with a median age of 149 days. 33 of them were opened more than 6 months ago.
- Like-for-like conversion (won within 90 days) is 14%, against 16 to 18% in earlier years. That is slightly lower, not a collapse.
- Capsule shows 16 wins closed since 1 April 2026, but only 4 are new Signed Up or Won deals. The rest are Complete / SOLD, including repeat clients and partners. That fits better with the 5 new clients seen in Xero.
Every opportunity
Use the controls to filter and sort, and switch column groups with the tabs. Touchpoints and lost reason are always shown; lost reason is blank unless the deal was lost.
“+N others” means more contacts at the same business took part; their names are in the Activity and contacts tab (up to three shown). The CSV has every column and every contact name.
Data caveats and definitions
- Scope: Capsule opportunities opened on or after 29 Oct 2022. Reccy-related opportunities are excluded (any mention of Reccy in the opportunity record itself; email signatures were ignored). Outcome groups: Won means Won, Signed Up or Complete / SOLD; Lost means Cold; On hold; Open means Enquiry to Closing.
- Contacts: every deal now counts all contacts at the business, not just the primary one. That means the opportunity’s primary contact, any other people linked to the opportunity, the business’s organisation record and the other people filed under it. Advisers or introducers at other firms and Unloq staff are left out. The history of every one of these contacts was read; none is missing. Point of contact shows the primary person, with “+N others”.
- Because all contacts are now included, activity figures are higher than in the first version of this page, where many deals only had the organisation record’s history (often empty) counted. Where a business had several opportunities close together, the same emails can count towards more than one of them.
- Touchpoints: emails in and out, meetings and calls, notes and completed tasks with anyone at the business, from first contact (no earlier than 90 days before the opportunity opened) to the outcome date or today. Calendar meetings in John’s calendar count when no Capsule meeting was logged that day. Per-30-day intensity divides by the deal length, with a 30-day minimum.
- Outcome date: the Capsule close date for won and lost deals. For On Hold deals it is the date of the last stage change, marked “parked, inferred”. Capsule’s API does not provide stage history, so the date a deal entered Proposing or Negotiating is not known.
- First contact: the earliest creation date or first logged email or note across all contacts at the business, or the opportunity’s creation date if earlier. Where the contact predates Capsule, the true first contact may be earlier.
- First meeting: the earliest calendar event in John’s Unloq calendar with someone from any of the contacts’ email domains, or a Capsule meeting or call entry. It is labelled “calendar” or “CRM”. Other team members’ calendars and John’s Ergo calendar were not read, so meetings run by Ross, Bradley and others count only if they were logged in Capsule. 161 deals show no meeting, and some will be missing data.
- Emails: Capsule-logged emails only (through the dropbox BCC). A check of 10 of John’s deals against his Gmail found that Capsule held about half of the emails (143 against 275), and as little as 0 to 5% on some deals (Alphabond, Oxford Metrics). Emails sent by other team members could not be checked. Treat email and touchpoint counts as relative, not absolute.
- Proposals: “Yes” means a sent email with a proposal, engagement letter or agreement attachment or subject line, found in Capsule or John’s Gmail. “Implied by stage” means the deal reached Negotiating or Closing, which by Unloq’s stage definitions means a proposal was sent. The Services PDF pack is tracked separately.
- Lead source comes from contact tags (see the lead source table). Tags may have been added or changed after the deal, and a business that came in through one route for an earlier deal keeps that tag for later ones.
- Lost reason is Capsule’s own lost reason on the opportunity, shown only for lost deals. None of the 167 On Hold deals has a reason recorded.
- One opportunity, “Unloq” (Unloq APAC, contact Justin Wise, marked Won in March 2023 at £1,000), looks like an internal partnership record rather than a client deal. It is kept in the table and totals, as it is in Capsule, but should probably be ignored.
- Capsule shows Certego as Signed Up (won, 23 Mar 2026), and AirTeam does not appear under that name. Losses after signing, or to Nalka’s success-fee competitor, are not reflected. “Chose competitor” is therefore probably under-recorded.
- Duplicates: a few businesses have more than one opportunity (for example 0121 Management, Theodore Management and Hyperion). They are shown as separate rows, as they are in Capsule. 217 opportunities carry a “Do Not Contact” tag applied after they were lost in 2022 to 24. It is a later clean-up tag, not a segment.
- Win rate “decided” = Won ÷ (Won + Lost). It leaves out On Hold and Open deals, which flatters recent periods. Correlations are Spearman rank correlations against a won/lost flag on decided deals.
Headline
Based on the 124 clients first billed since April 2022, a new client is worth roughly £30,000 of revenue over its life (typical client £15,500, average incl. big success fees £34,600). Most of that comes in year one.
Revenue by client-year
Client-year 1 = the 12 months from a client's first invoice. Averages include clients who billed nothing that year, and only clients old enough to have completed that year.
| Measure | Y1 | Y2 | Y3+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clients eligible (since Apr 22) | 107 | 75 | 48 |
| Mean per client | £20,780 | £7,416 | £1,689 |
| Median per client | £10,800 | £0 | £0 |
| Still billing | 100% | 43% (32) | 21% (10) |
| Mean if still billing | £20,780 | £17,429 | £7,371 |
| Median if still billing | £10,800 | £8,129 | £6,000 |
| All clients: eligible | 237 | 205 | 178 |
| All clients: mean | £12,161 | £4,163 | £3,334 |
| All clients: still billing | 97% | 27% | 13% |
Since April 2022 the business wins bigger first-year mandates, and more clients come back for a second year (43% vs 18% before). The Y3+ figure for recent clients is thin: only 48 have been with Unloq for three years, and 10 of them billed in year 3.
Success fees are 57% of all client revenue (£2.89m of £5.04m net), so averages are skewed by a few completed deals. Excluding the three largest first years (Alpine £315,000, Ranger £259,774, Minova £201,454), the recent Y1 mean falls to £13,916.
Cohorts by year won
Financial years end 31 March. Year 2 retention only counts clients whose second year has finished.
| Year first billed | New clients | Y1 mean | Y1 median | Billed in Y2 | Y2 mean | Paid success fee |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2018/19 | 14 | £5,415 | £4,500 | 3 of 14 | £187 | 4 |
| FY2019/20 | 14 | £8,898 | £3,600 | 3 of 14 | £5,850 | 4 |
| FY2020/21 | 26 | £9,019 | £6,235 | 6 of 26 | £3,833 | 11 |
| FY2021/22 | 26 | £5,390 | £4,950 | 5 of 26 | £1,284 | 5 |
| FY2022/23 | 30 | £8,713 | £6,133 | 11 of 30 | £9,567 | 8 |
| FY2023/24 | 29 | £20,020 | £10,800 | 12 of 29 | £5,256 | 11 |
| FY2024/25 | 30 | £28,938 | £15,000 | 9 of 16 | £7,296 | 10 |
| FY2025/26 | 30 | £28,521 | £13,750 | too early | 4 | |
| FY2026/27 to date | 5 | too early | too early | too early | 1 |
Unloq has added about 30 new clients a year since FY2022/23. Only 5 have been billed for the first time since 1 April 2026, which may be worth a look.
Profitability
From Xero's Profit and Loss. Margins are on Sales. Contribution deducts cost of sales plus Consulting (contractors) and IT Software and Consumables (data and research tools). Pre-tax adds back Corporation Tax, which is booked in overheads, and removes interest income.
| Financial year | Sales | Gross margin | Contribution | Pre-tax operating | Net (as booked) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2020/21 | £189,110 | 89.6% | 80.7% | 27.0% | 27.0% |
| FY2021/22 | £377,329 | 100.0% | 85.6% | 27.1% | 27.1% |
| FY2022/23 | £574,919 | 93.1% | 86.2% | 26.6% | 22.8% |
| FY2023/24 | £470,289 | 89.7% | 80.9% | 12.8% | 9.0% |
| FY2024/25 | £1,304,356 | 89.6% | 76.3% | 26.9% | 21.5% |
| FY2025/26 | £1,077,989 | 92.4% | 84.4% | 12.2% | 9.3% |
| FY2026/27 to 27/10 | £786,961 | 88.6% | 81.0% | 38.6% | 39.1% |
For per-client estimates I use FY2023/24 to FY2025/26 pooled: 90.7% gross, 80.2% contribution, 19.0% pre-tax and 14.9% net. FY2026/27 to date is left out because year-end entries such as depreciation and Corporation Tax aren't posted yet.
Most delivery staff sit in Salaries, which is an overhead in Xero, so the gross and contribution margins flatter the real cost of serving a client. The pre-tax margin is the safer "profit per client" view. It's also held down by one-off items such as £155,135 of pensions in FY2024/25.
| Per client (since Apr 2022) | Revenue | Contribution at 80.2% | Fully loaded at 19.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | £20,780 | £16,660 | £3,960 |
| Year 2 | £7,416 | £5,950 | £1,410 |
| Year 3+ | £1,689 | £1,350 | £320 |
| Lifetime | £29,885 | £23,960 | £5,690 |
These are allocations of company-wide margins, not actual costs per client. Xero has no project or job costing, so it can't show which clients cost more to serve.
Lifetime value of a new client
| Scenario | Basis | Revenue | Contribution | Fully loaded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Typical (low) | Median Y1 + Y2/Y3 retention × median billing | £15,520 | £12,440 | £2,960 |
| Central | Mean Y1 + Y2 + Y3+ per client, since Apr 2022 | £29,885 | £23,960 | £5,690 |
| Average to date (high) | Actual mean billed so far, 75 clients with 2+ years | £34,618 | £27,750 | £6,600 |
How clients are scored
Score out of 100. Tier A is 70 or more, B is 50 to 69, C is 30 to 49 and D is under 30.
- Revenue: 30 × the client's percentile rank on total net revenue among all 254 clients.
- Recency: 25 × (1 − months since last invoice ÷ 36), with a minimum of 0.
- Tenure: 15 × (client-years with any billing, capped at 4) ÷ 4.
- Trend: last 12 months vs the 12 before. Up 10%+ scores 15, flat 10, down to half 6, lower 3. New this year scores 12, returning after a gap 8, nothing in 24 months 0.
- Payment: average days from invoice to payment, weighted by amount. Up to 14 days scores 15, 30 days 12, 45 days 8, 60 days 4, slower 0. Any overdue balance today takes off 5.
Client scores
Listed: the 147 clients billed since 01/04/2022. The 107 older clients were scored the same way (76 D, 30 C, 1 B; £468,656 billed in total) but aren't listed. Revenue is net of VAT and credit notes. The overdue column is the gross amount still due, including VAT, on invoices past their due date as of 27/10/2026. That's £57,380 across 14 clients, with the largest from Theodore Management (£12,000) and Aurelius Marvel One (£9,600). The median client pays in 11 days.
What was excluded and caveats
- Included: 2,314 authorised or paid client sales invoices from 30/08/2014 to 27/10/2026, plus sales credit notes (£88,707 netted off). Draft, voided and deleted invoices are excluded.
- Excluded as non-client revenue: Ergo Digital, £22,685 of intercompany office-desk recharges, and Reccy AI, a £13 one-off. Interest income is only in the P&L and isn't client revenue.
- Merged as one client: Cibes Lift UK, Cibes France and Cibes Lift Group AB; Vareo Group and Vareo UK. All other Xero contacts are treated as separate clients, so related buyer entities may be split.
- 34 AUD and USD invoices are converted to GBP at the rate on each invoice.
- Success fees are identified from invoice wording (success, completion, commission, earn-out), so some may be misclassified.
- Clients in year 1 or 2 now are left out of the averages for years they haven't finished. Y3+ for recent clients rests on 48 clients, 10 still billing, so treat it as indicative.
- Profit per client is an allocation of company margins, not costing. Capsule deal data was not used.